Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 38.533517 45.520619 53.160813 62.102553 72.246200 83.361126 96.425688
2025-01-12 29.803450 39.515331 51.126148 65.882085 83.975043 105.268887 132.042913
2025-01-19 21.827446 31.871379 44.789889 62.316455 85.130631 113.453683 150.858391
2025-01-26 18.439495 29.116097 43.672943 64.451295 92.753689 129.311838 179.351938
2025-02-02 16.584711 27.998984 44.345563 68.677586 103.061027 148.899828 213.432406
2025-02-09 14.502926 26.130658 43.587690 70.620172 110.143776 164.379783 242.698700
2025-02-16 12.640623 24.252797 42.489173 71.794144 116.009417 178.301923 270.338269
2025-02-23 10.845098 22.163236 40.749017 71.713666 119.866569 189.423156 294.427690
2025-03-02 9.099953 19.850451 38.326612 70.244572 121.386545 197.088206 313.776580
2025-03-09 7.840608 18.191000 36.751563 69.899936 124.471428 207.037114 336.682930
2025-03-16 6.258129 15.617989 33.255245 65.980235 121.531453 207.663884 345.715411
2025-03-23 5.665876 14.932344 33.044050 67.594353 127.547941 222.137882 375.953880
2025-03-30 4.753121 13.491211 31.429436 66.926575 130.317491 232.606906 402.060735
2025-04-06 4.439023 13.349957 32.346850 70.997534 141.519361 257.229939 451.554670
2025-04-13 3.447249 11.358376 29.242740 67.207258 138.758966 259.120640 465.390098
2025-04-20 3.109775 10.921898 29.309531 69.478721 146.841004 279.136693 508.887278
2025-04-27 2.969233 10.980754 30.455213 73.972816 159.212724 306.853499 565.893012
2025-05-04 2.677678 10.543532 30.417799 76.037480 167.188142 327.438547 611.967305
2025-05-11 2.373031 9.986398 30.016317 77.284933 173.667192 345.697248 654.828655
2025-05-18 2.039137 9.240307 29.044007 77.199424 177.545518 359.549073 690.771419
2025-05-25 1.687632 8.318872 27.481043 75.638324 178.389068 368.012937 717.826470
2025-06-01 1.438391 7.668310 26.505084 75.272055 181.539167 380.680923 752.467808
2025-06-08 1.099116 6.534292 24.014062 71.104908 176.620669 378.369415 760.933666